farbzilla
WHL–

OptionsAlphaWheel V2— TLT + USO direction-aware wheel

Monthly options-premium harvest on two high-IV underlyings (TLT, USO). For each ticker every 3rd-Friday cycle: 60-day trend >+2% → sell 3% OTM put; <-2% → sell 3% OTM covered call; sideways → sell both (strangle). Cash-secured / covered only — no margin. Built 2026-05-26 from research/204-207. Manual execution via Schwab options; this page is the recommendation panel and forward tracker.

Current cycle

As of
2026-05-26
Prev 3rd Fri
2026-05-15
Next expiry
2026-06-18
Cycle status
mid-cycle (11 days in, 23 to go) — already open
Total capital needed
$22,268
Total premium est
$890 (4.00%)
TLT CC
DTE 27
spot $84.68 · 60d trend -5.5% · expires 2026-06-18
SELL 1× TLT 2026-06-18 $87.00 CALL @ $0.19 (vol 2298)
Capital required
$8,468
Premium est
$19
⚠ Requires 100 shares of stock at entry
USO CSP
DTE 27
spot $140.92 · 60d trend +76.7% · expires 2026-06-18
SELL 1× USO 2026-06-18 $138.00 PUT @ $8.71 (vol 16)
Capital required
$13,800
Premium est
$871

Backtest performance

Sharpe
+3.34
CAGR
+31.4%
Max DD
-2.3%
β vs SPY
+0.17
Worst month
-2.28%
Best month
+8.81%
Cycles
46
Trades / mo
2
Avg capital
$16.1k
Max capital
$20.8k
Corr vs SPY
+0.3
Window
22-08 → 26-05

Backtest uses real per-contract options data with a 5% bid-ask haircut, $0.65/contract commission, and volume ≥10 filter. Honest forward expectation: Sh 1.5-2.0, CAGR 18-25%, DD -10% (discount the in-sample numbers). Bootstrap 90% CI on Sharpe: [+1.18, +3.56]. 0 of 36 rolling 6mo windows were negative; 2022 bond crash handled cleanly.

Equity curve (backtest, monthly)

2.85×
2022-08-012026-05-01

Cumulative growth of $1 over 46 monthly cycles (2022-08-01 → 2026-05-01). Live equity will replace this once 6+ months of forward trades accumulate in the ledger.

Live ledger (0 closed cycles)

No live trades logged yet. Use options_wheel_predict.py log_open after placing orders in Schwab.

Recent backtest cycles (most recent 8)

TLT CC
2026-01-20 → 2026-02-20 · trend -4.8%
cap $8,569
+3.76%
USO STRANGLE
2026-01-20 → 2026-02-20 · trend +1.7%
cap $7,400
-3.53%
TLT STRANGLE
2026-02-23 → 2026-03-20 · trend +0.8%
cap $9,200
-0.67%
USO CSP
2026-02-23 → 2026-03-20 · trend +14.9%
cap $7,800
+3.6%
TLT STRANGLE
2026-03-23 → 2026-04-17 · trend -0.6%
cap $8,850
+0.95%
USO CSP
2026-03-23 → 2026-04-17 · trend +57.3%
cap $10,700
+7.76%
TLT STRANGLE
2026-04-20 → 2026-05-15 · trend +0.4%
cap $8,950
-0.55%
USO CSP
2026-04-20 → 2026-05-15 · trend +68.9%
cap $11,800
+5.66%

How it works

  • Every monthly 3rd-Friday cycle, two trades are opened — one on TLT, one on USO — on the trading day after the previous month's 3rd-Friday expiry.
  • Action is direction-aware: trend >+2% → cash-secured put; trend <-2% → covered call; sideways → short strangle. Strikes are 3% OTM (Pareto-optimal per research/207 OTM sweep).
  • Held to expiry. If OTM at expiry, full premium kept. If ITM, accept assignment (shares for CSP, called away for CC) or roll to the next month.
  • Cash-secured / covered only — no margin needed. Capital usage scales with strike prices; runs at ~$13-22k deployed.
  • Manual execution only. The predictor outputs recommendations; you enter the orders in Schwab. See OPTIONS_WHEEL_RUNBOOK.md for the full workflow.