Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
86
Equity
$86,890
Total return
-13.11%
Open spreads
50
Live Sharpe
-0.71
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-09-17). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (50)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | 22.5 / 27c | 2026-09-25 | 8d | $1.04 | -18.8% |
| PSKY | 11 / 12.5c | 2026-09-25 | 8d | $0.07 | -1.4% |
| AMD | 580 / 705c | 2026-10-02 | 15d | $2.63 | -6.2% |
| AMD | 575 / 710c | 2026-10-02 | 15d | $2.57 | -6.7% |
| AMD | 585 / 720c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $2.41 | -7.6% |
| AMD | 580 / 720c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $2.09 | -8.5% |
| PANW | 400 / 470c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $1.82 | -7.9% |
| AMD | 580 / 715c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $2.11 | -8.7% |
| PANW | 405 / 425c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $0.78 | -23.5% |
| AMD | 580 / 720c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $4.26 | -7% |
| PANW | 405 / 480c | 2026-10-09 | 22d | $1.92 | -10% |
| AMD | 580 / 730c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $10.18 | -5.2% |
| PSKY | 11 / 13c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.54 | +6.2% |
| BE | 270 / 370c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $22.85 | -4.2% |
| PSKY | 11 / 13c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.33 | -7.2% |
| RUM | 11 / 14c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.05 | -1.7% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 55c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $1.15 | +2.2% |
| BE | 270 / 370c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $19.40 | -8.3% |
| PSKY | 11 / 12c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.22 | -9% |
| RUM | 11 / 14c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.05 | -1.7% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 50c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $1.25 | +5.9% |
| BE | 270 / 370c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $24.49 | -2.1% |
| HPQ | 34 / 40c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $2.42 | +15.9% |
| INTC | 110 / 135c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $3.93 | -9.2% |
| LUMN | 7 / 8c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.40 | +33.3% |
| TTD | 17.5 / 22.5c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $0.15 | -0.8% |
| SEDG | 40 / 50c | 2026-10-16 | 29d | $1.29 | -0.8% |
| BE | 275 / 375c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $19.81 | -8.6% |
| DELL | 550 / 690c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $35.15 | -14.7% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.91 | -27.4% |
| LUMN | 7 / 8.5c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.48 | +21.6% |
| RUM | 11 / 12c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.07 | +2.2% |
| SMCI | 48 / 60c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.48 | -4.9% |
| TTD | 17 / 20c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.38 | +8.8% |
| BE | 275 / 370c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $20.05 | -7.7% |
| DELL | 550 / 690c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $36.12 | -13.9% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $1.25 | -16.4% |
| LUMN | 7 / 8c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.30 | +7.1% |
| QS | 7 / 8c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.02 | -6.1% |
| SMCI | 48 / 55c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.33 | -8.1% |
| TTD | 16.5 / 19c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.37 | -0.9% |
| BE | 275 / 370c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $25.80 | +0% |
| DELL | 550 / 690c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $50.60 | +0% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $1.62 | +0% |
| LUMN | 7 / 8c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.25 | +0% |
| QS | 7 / 8c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.08 | +0% |
| RUM | 10.5 / 12.5c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.50 | +0% |
| SEDG | 43 / 45c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.25 | +0% |
| SMCI | 48 / 60c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $1.05 | +0% |
| TTD | 17 / 19c | 2026-10-23 | 36d | $0.15 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.