Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
24
Equity
$92,232
Total return
-7.77%
Open spreads
95
Live Sharpe
-1.58
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-06-18). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (95)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLF | 12.5 / 14c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.19 | -7.6% |
| OPEN | 5 / 6c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.11 | +7.9% |
| HUM | 355 / 430c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $4.83 | -14.7% |
| CRWD | 695 / 760c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $11.45 | -5.1% |
| HUM | 375 / 420c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.99 | -2.2% |
| IONQ | 63 / 80c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $1.55 | +4.5% |
| IREN | 63 / 85c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $2.72 | +3% |
| MDB | 390 / 450c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $8.45 | +7.5% |
| SNOW | 195 / 225c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $4.11 | -61.5% |
| TEM | 55 / 65c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.85 | +1.5% |
| ARM | 345 / 380c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $6.65 | -7.8% |
| MU | 920 / 1170c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $24.01 | -59.1% |
| TEM | 55 / 60c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.51 | -1.3% |
| HD | 340 / 370c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $1.73 | -5.4% |
| SNOW | 190 / 220c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $6.22 | -68.9% |
| TEM | 55 / 60c | 2026-06-26 | 8d | $0.66 | +2.1% |
| HOOD | 88 / 105c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $1.03 | -77.6% |
| HOOD | 88 / 105c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $1.74 | -76.6% |
| HOOD | 90 / 110c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $3.61 | -64% |
| IBM | 290 / 325c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $0.80 | +1.2% |
| SNOW | 200 / 235c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $24.97 | +31% |
| DELL | 390 / 500c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $36.48 | +6.5% |
| SNOW | 345 / 380c | 2026-07-02 | 14d | $2.93 | +4.2% |
| NVO | 47 / 50c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.44 | +7.8% |
| RBLX | 56 / 65c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.60 | -8.3% |
| HOOD | 106 / 140c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $1.98 | -17% |
| INTC | 135 / 175c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $3.08 | -16.5% |
| RBLX | 53 / 60c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.77 | -18.3% |
| HOOD | 101 / 125c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $2.85 | -33% |
| WFC | 85 / 95c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $1.53 | +6.8% |
| ABT | 97 / 100c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.66 | +13.7% |
| EOG | 152.5 / 160c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.25 | +0% |
| RBLX | 50 / 55c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.83 | -30.5% |
| WFC | 89 / 100c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.64 | -1.4% |
| CAT | 1000 / 1100c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $10.54 | -20.7% |
| COIN | 180 / 220c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $5.27 | +5.1% |
| HOOD | 101 / 125c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $1.76 | -36.2% |
| PYPL | 44 / 47c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.48 | -3.2% |
| RBLX | 49 / 60c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $1.14 | -22.9% |
| WFC | 89 / 100c | 2026-07-10 | 22d | $0.47 | -3% |
| COIN | 195 / 240c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $2.45 | -0.5% |
| HOOD | 105 / 135c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.50 | -23.9% |
| MRVL | 410 / 480c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $2.90 | -4.3% |
| RBLX | 50 / 60c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.16 | -25.2% |
| WFC | 87.5 / 95c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.06 | -0.6% |
| ABT | 97.5 / 105c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.90 | +6.2% |
| AXP | 340 / 370c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $3.37 | -18% |
| DOW | 35 / 40c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.12 | +18.6% |
| HD | 345 / 380c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $3.98 | -5.4% |
| LOW | 230 / 260c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $4.70 | +4% |
| PYPL | 45 / 47.5c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.31 | -3.2% |
| WFC | 87.5 / 95c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.15 | +0.8% |
| ABT | 95 / 105c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.73 | -2.4% |
| AXP | 350 / 380c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $2.64 | -9.8% |
| DIS | 105 / 115c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.88 | -11.7% |
| HD | 350 / 380c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $3.07 | -4.3% |
| LOW | 240 / 260c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.90 | +1.7% |
| RBLX | 50 / 60c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.95 | -27% |
| TEM | 60 / 70c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.74 | -2.5% |
| WFC | 87.5 / 95c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.39 | +4.7% |
| ABT | 95 / 105c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.91 | -0.4% |
| AXP | 360 / 390c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $2.63 | -0.5% |
| CZR | 30 / 31c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.13 | +5.7% |
| DIS | 105 / 115c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.36 | -6.8% |
| HD | 350 / 375c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $3.09 | -4.7% |
| LOW | 240 / 260c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.73 | +0.7% |
| RBLX | 55 / 65c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.71 | -12.9% |
| TEM | 65 / 80c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.97 | +2.6% |
| WFC | 87.5 / 95c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $1.18 | +1.3% |
| CZR | 30 / 32c | 2026-07-17 | 29d | $0.07 | +0% |
| COIN | 200 / 240c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $4.07 | +4.2% |
| CRWD | 800 / 1050c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $12.28 | +1.7% |
| HD | 360 / 390c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $3.39 | +4.5% |
| HOOD | 120 / 140c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $1.30 | -9.4% |
| LOW | 245 / 260c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $1.65 | +3.4% |
| MRVL | 410 / 460c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $4.65 | -1.7% |
| NVO | 48 / 53c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.52 | +3.6% |
| RBLX | 60 / 65c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.56 | -2.9% |
| CRWD | 790 / 1040c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $11.66 | -0.3% |
| DIS | 106 / 111c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.24 | -29.4% |
| HD | 350 / 385c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $3.40 | -8% |
| HOOD | 130 / 140c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.95 | -1.9% |
| LOW | 235 / 255c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $4.32 | +5.9% |
| NOK | 17.5 / 20c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.18 | +2.2% |
| NVO | 48 / 54c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.65 | +5.4% |
| RBLX | 55 / 65c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $1.12 | -11.5% |
| CRWD | 805 / 960c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $6.46 | +0% |
| DIS | 110 / 115c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.63 | +0% |
| FSLR | 310 / 350c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $3.62 | +0% |
| HD | 360 / 385c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $2.13 | +0% |
| HOOD | 135 / 160c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $1.45 | +0% |
| LOW | 245 / 250c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.65 | +0% |
| NOK | 17 / 20c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.29 | +0% |
| NVO | 48 / 52c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.37 | +0% |
| RBLX | 60 / 65c | 2026-07-24 | 36d | $0.69 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.