Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
118
Equity
$105,718
Total return
+5.72%
Open spreads
29
Live Sharpe
0.48
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-11-02). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (29)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 17.5 / 22.5c | 2026-11-20 | 18d | $0.10 | +0.4% |
| LULU | 135 / 150c | 2026-11-20 | 18d | $0.04 | +0.1% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 57.5c | 2026-11-20 | 18d | $0.48 | +1.2% |
| TTD | 16.5 / 21c | 2026-11-20 | 18d | $0.17 | +1.2% |
| TTD | 17 / 22c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $0.12 | +0.6% |
| TTD | 17 / 21c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $0.12 | -0.3% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $10.15 | +23.2% |
| TTD | 17 / 22c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $0.18 | +1.9% |
| DELL | 545 / 670c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $11.97 | +6.8% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $10.13 | +23.1% |
| TTD | 17 / 22c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $0.11 | +0.4% |
| MSTR | 145 / 175c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $7.67 | +16.4% |
| TTD | 17 / 19c | 2026-11-27 | 25d | $0.13 | +1.1% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $8.30 | +11.8% |
| TTD | 17 / 22c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $0.20 | +1.2% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $8.15 | +11.2% |
| PLTR | 240 / 330c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $2.44 | +1.3% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $8.33 | +12% |
| OPEN | 4 / 5c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $0.08 | +2.2% |
| PLTR | 240 / 300c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $2.47 | +2.2% |
| MSTR | 145 / 180c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $5.36 | +0.7% |
| PLTR | 240 / 315c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $1.68 | +0.6% |
| BMNR | 28 / 33c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $0.17 | +0.4% |
| DELL | 545 / 700c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $7.05 | -0.8% |
| MDB | 505 / 550c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $1.53 | +0% |
| BMNR | 28 / 30c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $0.12 | +0% |
| DELL | 540 / 700c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $5.31 | +0% |
| MSTR | 145 / 175c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $4.81 | +0% |
| PLTR | 235 / 315c | 2026-12-04 | 32d | $1.39 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.