Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
54
Equity
$82,417
Total return
-17.58%
Open spreads
105
Live Sharpe
-1.89
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-08-03). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (105)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOW | 29 / 32c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.60 | -28.7% |
| PTON | 7 / 7.5c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.09 | +0% |
| CF | 120 / 140c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $2.52 | +2% |
| DOW | 30 / 32c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.59 | +6.4% |
| PTON | 6 / 7.5c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.34 | -18.1% |
| ACN | 155 / 185c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $1.55 | -39.8% |
| COP | 112 / 125c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $1.29 | -46.1% |
| DOW | 29 / 32c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.58 | -29.3% |
| OXY | 52 / 57c | 2026-08-07 | 4d | $0.77 | -50.6% |
| OXY | 56 / 65c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.92 | -6.8% |
| COP | 120 / 145c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $1.57 | -4.2% |
| OXY | 58 / 65c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.71 | -0.2% |
| PBR | 18.5 / 19c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.04 | -56.5% |
| DOW | 32 / 34c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.35 | +7.3% |
| DVN | 46 / 49c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.40 | -7.7% |
| OXY | 59 / 65c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $0.46 | -0.7% |
| COP | 120 / 130c | 2026-08-14 | 11d | $1.42 | -9.8% |
| LYB | 57.5 / 62.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.14 | -65% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.35 | -15.3% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.40 | -14.6% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.52 | -12.9% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.12 | -3.1% |
| LYB | 65 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.85 | +2.4% |
| ACN | 165 / 215c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.85 | -16.8% |
| COP | 125 / 140c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.76 | -4.5% |
| DOW | 32.5 / 37.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.70 | +8.6% |
| DVN | 47.5 / 52.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.66 | +2.3% |
| FISV | 60 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.60 | -4.3% |
| LYB | 65 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.85 | +2.4% |
| OXY | 60 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.89 | +3.1% |
| PBR | 20 / 22c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.16 | -4.9% |
| SMCI | 35 / 45c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.91 | +1.4% |
| ACN | 170 / 215c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.80 | -12.9% |
| COP | 120 / 135c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.41 | -10.2% |
| DOW | 32.5 / 35c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.45 | +8.8% |
| DVN | 47.5 / 52.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.48 | -1.8% |
| FISV | 55 / 65c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.48 | -11.2% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.50 | -0.8% |
| OXY | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.58 | +0.6% |
| PBR | 19 / 21c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.25 | -17.1% |
| SMCI | 34 / 44c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.96 | +0.3% |
| ACN | 180 / 215c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.80 | -7.9% |
| COP | 125 / 135c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.70 | -5.9% |
| DOW | 32.5 / 37.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.62 | +6.6% |
| DVN | 47.5 / 50c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.33 | -3.2% |
| FISV | 55 / 65c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.66 | -9.2% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.46 | -1.5% |
| OXY | 60 / 65c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.40 | -1.7% |
| PBR | 19 / 20c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.10 | -31.1% |
| SMCI | 31 / 40c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.89 | -7.3% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.78 | -8.6% |
| RGTI | 17 / 21c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.49 | -10% |
| DOW | 33.5 / 37.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.45 | +7.9% |
| FISV | 57 / 63c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.11 | -5.9% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.67 | -9.8% |
| OXY | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.85 | +4.7% |
| RGTI | 16.5 / 20c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.64 | -10.5% |
| SMCI | 29.5 / 37c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $0.79 | -14.3% |
| LYB | 67.5 / 75c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.11 | +9.7% |
| LYB | 65 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 18d | $1.13 | +9.8% |
| ACN | 165 / 170c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.35 | -43% |
| FISV | 55 / 60c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.05 | -21% |
| OXY | 62 / 65c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.10 | -6.2% |
| SMCI | 30 / 37c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.09 | -14% |
| ACN | 160 / 170c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.45 | -11.1% |
| FISV | 58 / 62c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.41 | -15% |
| IONQ | 41 / 50c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.95 | -4.1% |
| ACN | 155 / 180c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $2.52 | -36.8% |
| IONQ | 40 / 48c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.35 | -11.3% |
| RGTI | 17.5 / 21.5c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.59 | -4.7% |
| ACN | 165 / 180c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $2.03 | -27.1% |
| DOW | 33 / 37c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.40 | +0% |
| FISV | 57 / 63c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.81 | -10.6% |
| IONQ | 39 / 46c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $1.16 | -19.7% |
| RGTI | 17 / 20.5c | 2026-08-28 | 25d | $0.48 | -10.9% |
| BE | 225 / 310c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $8.38 | -13.2% |
| DOW | 32 / 36c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.40 | -6.9% |
| FISV | 60 / 61c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.21 | +11.4% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $1.50 | -14.1% |
| IREN | 46 / 60c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $1.48 | -7.3% |
| RGTI | 18 / 23c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.58 | -5.9% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.97 | +0.9% |
| COP | 127 / 130c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.61 | +0% |
| DVN | 47 / 52c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.56 | -14.2% |
| ACN | 190 / 195c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.63 | +0.2% |
| OXY | 61 / 68c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.68 | -3.8% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.80 | -1.2% |
| AMD | 590 / 750c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $18.19 | +6.5% |
| BE | 295 / 340c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $5.30 | +8.1% |
| BMNR | 22 / 30c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.33 | +0.7% |
| GLW | 170 / 210c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $3.34 | -5.4% |
| INTC | 111 / 143c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $2.85 | +1.8% |
| MRVL | 235 / 300c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $7.95 | +1% |
| OPEN | 4.5 / 6c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.18 | -3% |
| SMCI | 37 / 41c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.56 | +0.3% |
| SMR | 10.5 / 13c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.30 | -4.1% |
| AMAT | 645 / 830c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $12.79 | +0% |
| AMD | 590 / 740c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $8.74 | +0% |
| BE | 305 / 340c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $4.70 | +0% |
| BMNR | 21.5 / 26c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.43 | +0% |
| CRWV | 115 / 125c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $1.27 | +0% |
| GLW | 180 / 220c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $3.47 | +0% |
| MRVL | 240 / 310c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $6.91 | +0% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $0.90 | +0% |
| SNDK | 1835 / 2470c | 2026-09-04 | 32d | $40.00 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.