ML Liquidity

BASE 78 + 12 LIQUIDITY COLS · K=20 · 40D HOLD · 21D REBAL · 74 LEGS · PAPER
About this strategy — what it is, what it looks for, how it operates

Screening every unused column in features_full_v2 against the base 78 found exactly ONE family that lifted beta-HEDGED Sharpe while beta FELL: the 12 liquidity columns (hedged +0.36 → +0.99, beta 0.44 → 0.39). This book forward-tests that, at the slowest rebalance that still clears a pre-registered bar.

  • What it survivedrandom-block control — 14 random 12-column blocks from the unused pool, liquidity at the 100th percentile, z=+3.72 (null mean −0.03, max +0.24). Same control that killed the earlier "options carry the ml edge" claim.
  • Cost gatelift essentially FLAT from 10bp to 100bp one-way (+0.63/+0.63/+0.62/+0.60); median ADV of picks moved only $12.1M → $11.0M (0.91x). At 100bp the base book goes NEGATIVE (−0.20) while this stays +0.41.
  • What carries it`illiquidity` (Amihud) is the single necessary column: +0.27 added alone, −0.21 when dropped. Cross-sectional IC −0.029 (t=−6.6) — ordinary predictor magnitude, not a leak.
  • ⚠ What it FAILEDcross-model transfer: adding these columns to precision25's 79 features lifted hedged by only +0.09. And Deflated Sharpe charged for the day's ~145 selection events is 0.135 against a 0.95 gate. This is NOT a validated edge.
  • Why run it anywayDSR says "unprovable on this dataset after that much searching", not "false". The only instrument that settles it is forward data — hence a zero-risk paper book from 0.00%, not funding.
  • Config rule (fixed before the sweep)forward-test only if some rebalance ≥ 10d keeps lift ≥ +0.40 at ≤ 160 legs. 5d/301 legs/+0.65, 10d/152/+0.63, 21d/74/+0.49 — 21d chosen as the fewest legs that clears ($136/leg on $10k).
Backtest — 5-fold walk-forward, honest true-daily marks (2024-01 → 2026-05)
Sharpe
+0.62 (hedged, 21d)
Win rate
CAGR
Max DD

Backtest numbers, not live results — measured on honest true-daily marks across a 5-fold walk-forward with 10bps costs. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

TOTAL P&L
-$77
-0.77% on $10,000 deployed
REGIME PAUSED
VIX
PERFORMANCE
RETURN
-0.77%
-$77 on capital deployed
SHARPE
need 20 more days
WIN RATE
0 closed (80 open)
MAX DD
0.00%
worst drawdown
REALIZED P&L
$0
0 closed trades
UNREALIZED P&L
-$77
80 open positions
LONG EXPOSURE
$5,292
net -$77
SHORT EXPOSURE
$5,368
gross $10,660

Open Positions80 held · live MTM

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