MC Put Leg— real-price shadow tracker
Manual Champion's 30% leg sells weekly near-ATM SPY + QQQ puts (Monday, 0.5% OTM, settled at Friday expiry). The research/278 backtest priced this leg with a Black-Scholes model (20d realized vol × 1.20) — a synthetic assumption. This page replays it with real Polygon per-contract prices, no orders placed, so the model-vs-market gap is measured instead of assumed.
Live shadow performance
Shadow since 2026-06-05 (the manual_champion paper-book deployment), marked on real per-contract option closes, data asof 2026-09-17. Equity basis $10,000 — returns are P&L / strike (cash-secured convention), matching the backtest.
Model vs market premium
Ratio 1.00 = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 pricing was exact. Full-history replay (2022-05 → 2026-06, 418 real-priced trades): this leg standalone earned weekly Sharpe +0.20, CAGR +1.3%, 73% weekly win rate, −10.3% max drawdown, worst week −7.3% — versus Sharpe +0.74 / CAGR +6.4% under the backtest's synthetic pricing (research/295). Nearly all of Manual Champion's alpha lives in the sector leg; treat this leg as roughly breakeven income with crash exposure, not an engine.
Weekly put cycles (latest 16)
| Entry | Ticker | Strike | Expiry | Credit | Model | P&L | Ret | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SPY | 756 | 2026-09-18 | $3.82 | $1.63 | +$3.03 | +0.40% | open |
| 2026-09-14 | QQQ | 706 | 2026-09-18 | $4.66 | $2.74 | +$4.28 | +0.61% | open |
| 2026-09-08 | SPY | 762 | 2026-09-11 | $2.26 | $1.08 | +$2.25 | +0.29% | closed |
| 2026-09-08 | QQQ | 715 | 2026-09-11 | $3.72 | $2.48 | +$3.46 | +0.48% | closed |
| 2026-08-31 | SPY | 764 | 2026-09-04 | $2.21 | $1.90 | +$2.20 | +0.29% | closed |
| 2026-08-31 | QQQ | 714 | 2026-09-04 | $3.43 | $4.53 | +$3.42 | +0.48% | closed |
| 2026-08-24 | SPY | 760 | 2026-08-28 | $2.70 | $3.15 | +$2.69 | +0.35% | closed |
| 2026-08-24 | QQQ | 703 | 2026-08-28 | $4.50 | $6.08 | +$4.49 | +0.64% | closed |
| 2026-08-17 | SPY | 769 | 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $3.32 | $-1.53 | -0.20% | closed |
| 2026-08-17 | QQQ | 726 | 2026-08-21 | $3.39 | $6.71 | $-9.51 | -1.31% | closed |
| 2026-08-10 | SPY | 769 | 2026-08-14 | $2.32 | $3.41 | +$2.31 | +0.30% | closed |
| 2026-08-10 | QQQ | 718 | 2026-08-14 | $4.60 | $7.38 | +$4.59 | +0.64% | closed |
| 2026-08-03 | SPY | 755 | 2026-08-07 | $2.30 | $3.42 | +$2.29 | +0.30% | closed |
| 2026-08-03 | QQQ | 697 | 2026-08-07 | $5.15 | $6.63 | +$5.14 | +0.74% | closed |
| 2026-07-27 | SPY | 736 | 2026-07-31 | $4.51 | $2.53 | +$4.50 | +0.61% | closed |
| 2026-07-27 | QQQ | 679 | 2026-07-31 | $7.75 | $6.22 | +$7.74 | +1.14% | closed |
Credit = real Polygon close of the selected contract on entry day. Model = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 price for the same contract. Settles at the put's own real expiry-day price. Strike targeting uses put-call parity implied spot (adjusted-close immune).