Insider Calls (90DTE)
90-DTE ATM CALLS ON LIVE INSIDER ENTRIES · $2K/TICKET · V2 RULE 07-21▶About this strategy — what it is, what it looks for, how it operates
Convexity satellite on the validated insider book — mirrors every live insider entry with a ~90-DTE ATM call (v2 rule, frozen 2026-07-21). Research/434 exposed the original 45-DTE basis as a horizon-mismatch artifact: 45-DTE tickets expire around trading-day 31 of the signal's 45-trading-day drift, and the +46-61% backtests credited expired options with later stock prices. Honest 45-DTE edge: ~+5%/ticket (noise). 90-DTE calls on the same entries: +39.9%/ticket at real NBBO, t=2.7, positive all three years, ex-top3 +23.5%, survives bid-only-exit stress (+27.9%). Defined-risk leverage access on proven alpha; forward record restarted at the v2 freeze.
- Signalthe live insider book's entries (SEC Form-4 XGBoost ranking — the one validated promote, fwd-tracked)
- Structure (v2)~90-DTE nearest-ATM call per entry, $2k premium/ticket, exit at min(45 trading days, expiry) — sells remaining time value instead of dying at expiry mid-signal
- Why 90 DTEcovers the full [15,45]-trading-day alpha horizon at half the annualized theta; the old '45d beats 90d' sweep was the expiry-accounting artifact inverted
- Honest caveat~134 tickets 2024-2026, one broad regime; tail-carried (median ticket -18%) — expect losing streaks; forward record starts 2026-07-21 at $100k
Backtest numbers, not live results — measured on honest true-daily marks across a 5-fold walk-forward with 10bps costs. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.