Edge Lab
New findings from the 2026-07 discovery round, under live forward validation before any scale-up. Everything here is paper / tiny-size — hard external data anchors vs retail venue prices. Marks are live cost-to-close net of fees. Updated 9/19/2026, 7:00:10 PM UTC.
Real positions
KXTOPMONTHLY-26JUL-BRU — LONG 10 @ 64¢ · now 0/100 · live −$7 · realized −$2
Anchored edges — politics fast-resolvers + music
Poll/ratings-calibrated and streaming-data-anchored mispricings on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Paper sells opened at conservative band edges; resolve Jul 28 – Aug 25.
| Edge | Venue | Side | Fair band | Tier | Position | Mark | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| music_bruno_jul | kalshi | BUY | 88–96% | WATCH | REAL 10@64¢ | — | 2026-07-31 |
| pol_mn_flanagan | pmus | SELL | 50–70% | GO | 100@81¢ lost | −$20 | 2026-08-11 |
| pol_mi_elsayed | pmus | SELL | 35–55% | GO | 100@65¢ lost | −$36 | 2026-08-04 |
| pol_sd_rhoden | pmus | SELL | 88–95% | GO | 100@85¢ lost | −$16 | 2026-07-28 |
| pol_ok_mazzei | pmus | SELL | 55–70% | GO | 100@79¢ open | −$22 | 2026-08-25 |
| pol_nv_gov_rep | pmus | BUY | 55–68% | WATCH | — | — | 2026-11-03 |
| pol_me_sen_rep | pmus | BUY | 45–60% | WATCH | — | — | 2026-11-03 |
| mx_ret_sol | kalshi | SELL | 10–18% | GO | 100@31¢ open | +$0 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_xrp | kalshi | SELL | 8–15% | GO | 100@28¢ open | +$3 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_eth | kalshi | SELL | 7–14% | GO | 100@21¢ open | −$12 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_doge | kalshi | SELL | 9–16% | GO | — | — | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_50v100 | kalshi | SELL | 34–48% | GO | 50@54¢ open | +$19 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_sold26_200 | kalshi | SELL | 3–6% | GO | 100@10¢ open | −$14 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_btcminy40 | kalshi | SELL | 20–28% | GO | — | — | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_dogemax1 | kalshi | SELL | 0–1% | GO | 100@4¢ open | −$2 | 2027-01-01 |
Live P&L −$6 · realized −$72 · 7 paper positions open. Fresh entries mark negative by the spread+fees until the anchor thesis plays out — that cost is the honest price of the test.
Cross-venue lock monitor — Kalshi ↔ Polymarket US
Two-sided risk-free locks on rulebook-identical markets (51 pairs: MLB futures + state politics), net of both taker fees, every 30 min.
No positive net-taker locks at last scan (2026-09-19T19:00:08+00:00). Best gross gaps logged for the 2-week tape.
KXGTEMP — hottest-year 2026
SELL-YES vs GISS/ENSO-conditional fair. El Niño developing → entry gate closed; tracker enters if price rises or ENSO stalls.
Model fair 38.2% (stress 57.9%) · 2 open · live −$85 · realized +$0
MAXY crypto touch-ladders
Deribit-anchored moon-ticket premium selling (paper), DVOL regime-gated.
15 legs open · live −$138 · realized +$0
Rotten Tomatoes nowcast
Live review-flow tracking vs KXRT ladders — edge is repricing speed around embargo lifts. Next: Spider-Man Brand New Day (~Jul 28).
- ODY: 95 (365✓/19✗ of 384)
Corporate-action alerts
EDGAR full-text watch: odd-lot tenders, exchange offers, reverse-split cash-outs. Alert-only; ~$1–2k/yr ceiling.
- 2026-09-03 — Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fun (cef nav tender)